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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."